Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, March 25th

Monday’s bond market has opened up slightly with stocks starting the week in negative territory and no relevant news or economic data to drive trading. The Dow is currently down 80 points while the Nasdaq is down 45 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (2.43%) but preventing an improvement in mortgage pricing is weakness late Friday.



30 yr - 2.43%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock




There is nothing of importance set for release today, the only empty day of the week. The rest of the week brings us six economic reports to watch along with two potentially relevant Treasury auctions. None of the reports are considered to be key releases, but several carry enough significance to alter mortgage rates if they show any surprises.



Housing Starts (New Residential Construction)

Tomorrow has the first report of the week with February's Housing Starts data at 8:30 AM ET. This report tracks construction starts of new housing and doesn't usually cause much movement in mortgage rates. It is considered one of the least important reports we see each month but is expected to show a decline in new starts, indicating softness in the housing sector. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a sizable decline in new starts. However, unless we see a large variance from forecasts the data likely will not lead to a noticeable move in mortgage pricing.



Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)

March's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will also be posted tomorrow morning. The New York-based Conference Board will release this index at 10:00 AM ET. It gives us an indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of our economy. If this report shows that consumer confidence in their own financial situation is falling, it would indicate that consumers are less apt to make a large purchase in the near future. If it reveals that confidence looks to be growing, we may see bond traders sell as economic growth may rise, pushing mortgage rates higher Tuesday morning. It is expected to show a reading of 132.0 up from February's 131.4 reading. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.




Overall, Friday is the most important day of the week with three reports scheduled. However, as we saw last week, the markets can get volatile at any time. Stocks will also help dictate bond direction this week. This could be the start of a very active and volatile period for the markets. Therefore, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if closing in the near future and still floating an interest rate.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.